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10-K
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC filed this Form 10-K on 02/08/2018
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suppliers could be more difficult to replace if we were no longer able to rely on them. If we have to seek new suppliers and service providers, we may be subject to pricing or other terms less favorable than those we currently enjoy. If we cannot replace or engage distributors or suppliers who meet our specifications in a short period of time, that could increase our expenses and cause shortages of food and other items at our restaurants, which could cause a restaurant to remove items from its menu.  If that were to happen and customers change their dining habits as a result, affected restaurants could experience significant reductions in sales during the shortage or thereafter.  Our focus on a limited menu would make the consequences of a shortage of a key ingredient more severe.

In the first quarter of 2015, through our ongoing auditing of suppliers, we identified a pork supplier that was not meeting our standards and suspended purchases of pork from this supplier. Without this supply, we did not have enough pork meeting our specifications for all of our restaurants and a large number of our restaurants were not serving carnitas for a number of months during 2015.  We believe our comparable restaurant sales were adversely impacted as a result, as customers chose to eat elsewhere rather than substituting a different one of our menu items for carnitas.

Changes in customer tastes and preferences, spending patterns and demographic trends could cause sales to decline.

Changes in customer preferences, general economic conditions, discretionary spending priorities, demographic trends, traffic patterns and the type, number and location of competing restaurants affect the restaurant industry. Our sales could be impacted by changes in consumer preferences in response to dietary concerns, including preferences regarding items such as calories, sodium, carbohydrates or fat. These changes could result in consumers avoiding our menu items in favor of other foods, and our focus on a limited menu could make the consequences of a change in consumer preferences more severe than our competitors may face. Some customers could also avoid freshly-prepared foods like those we serve, based on concerns regarding food safety.  This may be more likely to impact us as a result of the widely-publicized food safety incidents we experienced beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Our success also depends to a significant extent on consumer confidence, which is influenced by general economic conditions and discretionary income levels. Our average restaurant sales may decline during economic downturns or periods of uncertainty, which can be caused by various factors such as high unemployment, increasing taxes, interest rates, or other changes in fiscal or monetary policy, high gasoline prices, declining home prices, tight credit markets or foreign political or economic unrest. Any material decline in consumer confidence or a decline in family “food away from home” spending could cause our sales, operating results, profits, business or financial condition to decline. If we fail to adapt to changes in customer preferences and trends, we may lose customers and our sales may deteriorate.

If we were to experience widespread difficulty renewing existing leases on favorable terms, our revenue or occupancy costs could be adversely affected.

We lease substantially all of the properties on which we operate restaurants, and some of our leases are due for renewal or extension options in the next several years. Some leases are subject to renewal at fair market value, which could involve substantial increases, and a smaller number expire without any renewal option. While we currently expect to pursue the renewal of substantially all of our expiring restaurant leases, any difficulty renewing a significant number of such leases, or any substantial increase in rents associated with lease renewals, could adversely impact us. If we have to close any restaurants due to difficulties in renewing leases, we would lose revenue from the affected restaurants and may not be able to open suitable replacement restaurants. Conversely, substantial increases in rents associated with lease renewals would increase our occupancy costs, reducing our restaurant margins.

Risks Related to our Unique Business Strategy

We may not persuade customers of the benefits of paying our prices for higher-quality food.

Our success depends in large part on our ability to persuade customers that food made with higher-quality ingredients is worth the prices they will pay at our restaurants relative to prices offered by some of our competitors, particularly those in the quick-service restaurant segment. We may not successfully educate customers about the quality of our food, and customers may not care even if they do understand our approach. That could require us to change our pricing, advertising or promotional strategies, which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations or the brand identity that we have tried to create. Additionally, it will likely be more difficult for us to persuade the public about the quality and value of our food following the food-borne illnesses we experienced in 2015 and the associated deterioration of customer perceptions about our brand, and we cannot predict when those perceptions will improve, if ever.  If customers are not persuaded that we offer a good value for their money, our restaurant transaction counts could be adversely affected, which would negatively impact our business results.

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